WMO: “Long-term projections must provide for ‘climate-proofing’ cities”
No commentsPast weather patterns are no longer good indicators to plan for future infrastructures, according to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Briefing journalists at Copenhagen’s Bella Center, WMO Secretary-General Michael Jarraud said that past weather models, which are used to project future weather impacts, may no longer be accurate indicators for urban planning. He ascribed this to the significant changes in weather patterns already being wreaked by global warming. “Planners should also integrate what might happen in the next 50-100 years and not just past indicators,” he said.
While he cautioned against discarding past weather models altogether as they are still useful tools for discerning variable changes in weather events, he however believes that looking at past weather events will not be able to give accurate projections to city planners anymore as to how much should infrastructures bear up in the long run.
More accurate future projections are currently being worked out by the IPCC as they prepare the Fifth Assessment Report on climate change. Jarraud said IPCC may furnish better indicators by 2013 or 2014.
In an interview with this correspondent, Jarraud said that for a country like the Philippines, which is susceptible to almost all types of disasters – tropical storms, floods, droughts, and sea-level rise – it is imperative to plan for far longer periods.
“[The Philippines] must build a scenario for the future on a more long-term perspective. Investments must be about 50 to 100 years ahead,” he said.
The IPCC projections of an 18-59 cm rise in sea-level by year 2100 will alone heavily impact not only the coastal provinces in the Philippines but the inland ones as well, he said
“With a 50 cm increase in ocean levels, storm surges would bring more water inland. This will increase the vulnerability of the people,” said Jarraud.
