What we don’t know can hurt us
No commentsIn the absence of proper information, it is easy to overuse the limited available information and arrive at wrong conclusions.
Paro, Bhutan, January 21: Against the backdrop of a gaping information gap with regard to melting Himalayan glaciers and rising global concerns, experts from four South Asian countries wracked their brains to find a common ground on which to deal with the issue.
A two-day workshop on the Regional Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Risk Reduction Initiative in the Himalayas, attended by Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, was held in Paro, Bhutan, in the second half of January.
It provided a regional platform “to learn from each other and reduce risk from GLOFs,” said the deputy minister of Nepal’s National Environment Commission, Dasho Nado Rinchen.
A forecast of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that if current trends continue, 80 per cent of Himalayan glaciers will disappear in 30 years.
IPCC has said 24 lakes have been identified as ‘dangerous’ in Bhutan and will burst by 2035; similarly listed are 26 lakes in Nepal, 16 lakes in India and 52 lakes in Pakistan.
However, the lack of precise data on the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region makes the understanding of the problem sketchy.
“Very little information is available at this point of time,” head of the Nobel Prize awarded IPCC, Dr. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, told BT during the climate change conference in Poland last December. He described the available information as “meagre and inadequate” and stressed on the need for more research.
While speaking on the subject of the IPCC’s lake-burst forecast, Dr. Pachauri said, “That is entirely possible but nobody can make that kind of prediction.” He said the prediction depicts only one scenario but warned that Bhutan should not neglect it.
Early this month, BBC reported that experts, international organisations, and governments of the region have agreed to take immediate measures.
It was decided to gather crucial and basic information on climate change impacts and then design appropriate responses.
Seven landscapes have already been identified in eight countries, from Myanmar in the east to Kyrgyzstan in the west.
An official from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) was quoted saying, “It will be a comprehensive study of all ecological aspects.” He added, “Before, such studies have happened here and there, but this time we are adopting a transect approach, which means it will cover latitudinal (from north to south) and altitudinal (high altitude) locations.”
Asserting the need for regional cooperation in taking action to fight the impact of climate change, the Chief Scientific Officer of the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, Dr. R.K. Sood said, “Glacial lakes are trans-boundary issues and require trans-boundary measures.”
Dr. Sood said Himachal Pradesh experienced a flood in 2005 after a glacial lake outburst in China and reasoned that such incidents affect countries irrespective of geographical boundaries.
However, he said, apart from one or two countries, most states in the region did not agree on all matters, denting the possibility of a regional cooperation.
Rajeev Issar of UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BPCR) said such initiatives require time, resources and technical expertise. He said only regional cooperation will enable an environment for countries to share technical expertise.
An official from the Department of Energy agreed that no comprehensive study has been done in the Himalayan region despite several independent studies.
The Co-director of the Asia Programme of The Mountain Institute, Mr. Brian Peniston, told BT that most of the studies conducted in the Himalayan region are desk reviews, or based on satellite pictures, and are limited in scope and lacked depth.
He said that in the absence of proper information, it is easy to overuse the limited available information and arrive at wrong conclusions.
