Chinese scientists say G8 has carbon emission deficit of $5.5 trillion
No commentsCOPENHAGEN–As the second week of long-awaited UN climate talks begin here in the Danish capital, the finger of blame is pointed at developed countries for their historical pollution of greenhouse gases that cause climate change.
A Chinese research group argues that the G8 group of wealthy countries have a carbon emission deficit of US$ 5.5 trillion. The number is expected to climb to US$ 6.3 trillion by 2050.
During the last UN climate conference in Poland in 2008, He Jiankun, a member of the Chinese delegation and expert on low carbon energy, argued that the issue of global greenhouse gas emission cuts should be viewed from the perspective of “cumulative carbon dioxide per capita” because the historical cumulative emissions of developing countries are far less than those of the developed world.
Ding Zhongli, a geophysist and vice president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, calculated the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions per capita of all countries since 1900. China’s data for 2005, 24.14 tons, stands far behind that of the developed world in 1960. His paper was published in a recent issue of Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences.
Ding and his colleagues argue that the index of cumulative emissions per capita best reflects the key principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol.
He said in an interview with the Chinese newspaper Science Times that China needs to express the importance of “cumulative carbon emissions per capita.”
The researchers have also calculated carbon dioxide emission quotas for each country from now to 2050, based on the presumption that the concentration of the gas in the atmosphere is held below 470 ppm (parts per million). They then categorized countries or regions in the world with a population of over 300,000 into four groups: those with an emission deficit; those that must make an emission reduction; those that must reduce their rate of emission; and those that may proceed at status quo levels.
Developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, along with the world’s major oil exporting countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have long exhausted their “emission allowance”, according to the report.
If each ton of carbon dioxide costs US$20, six member countries of the G8 group, including the US, UK, Germany, France, Canada and Russia, have accumulated an emission deficit valued at US$ 5.5 trillion. Another US$ 0.8 trillion will be added to it by 2050. China is grouped with other developing countries with a relatively faster economic growth. The researchers stated that for China, the rate of emission must be slowed.
In July, G8 leaders made a statement in Italy, attempting to persuade developing countries to join a push to cut greenhouse emissions by 50 percent by 2050. The deal announced for G8 countries is to reduce their emissions by 80 percent by 2050. According to Ding and his colleagues, although it seems that the G8 countries contribute more to emission reductions by percentage, their declarations have yet to appear balanced to developing countries.
If the year 1990 is taken as the starting point, G8 carbon dioxide emissions per capita will be 146.94 tons by 2050, four times as much as those of other countries. Moreover, up until 1990, the world had already witnessed G8 cumulative emissions per capita five times greater than the emissions of other countries. The term “other countries” also includes such major emitters as industrialized nations other than the G8 and the oil-exporting countries, which will leave smaller emissions allowances for the developing countries.
The researchers add that the promised carbon emission cuts by the developed countries should include a reduction to compensate for their excessive emissions in the past.
They also emphasized that future negotiations should change the situation, as they were previously dominated by several developed countries, and that the topics should not just focus on the simple reduction of emissions, but on detailed quotas for each country under certain atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.
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(Caijing.com.cn, by intern Zhu Shaojun and staff writer Li Hujun )
